Thursday, January 15, 2015

Disneyland, Measles outbreak in US & the SIR Model

What started as a measles outbreak among seven people who visited Disneyland in December has spread to more than 26, as an unvaccinated California woman apparently transmitted the virus through airports and the theme park, health officials said. (Source: Guardian).

The Ebola is another outbreak we saw a few months back...

Taken together, the 26 cases would account for almost 12% of the expected measles cases for the entire year in the US. Photograph: John Heseltine/Corbis

S - Susceptible, I - Infected, R - Recovered

The SIR Model a three-compartment model, for disease spread can be used to explain such outbreaks. In this model each individual is either Susceptible to the disease, Infected, or has Recovered and is immune. Infected individuals infect susceptibles they meet with some rate and recover with some rate. The ratio of these rates determine if the disease will become an epidemic or not.

The simulation for the SIR Model I had done recently as part of Simulation of Complex Systems course at Chalmers University:

S - SusceptibleI - InfectedR - Recovered

The methodology utilized for the simulations:

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